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Level of agreement among GCMs for projected change in SEI class (under RCP4.5 2071-2100) [U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]

U.S. Geological Survey, ECOSYSTEMS · 2071 Full Details

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Full Details

Title
Level of agreement among GCMs for projected change in SEI class (under RCP4.5 2071-2100) [U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]
Description
Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management. We assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI): sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. This layer shows agreement among climate models for change in sagebrush ecological integrity class (under RCP4.5 2071-2100) for areas that are currently Core Sagebrush Areas (CSA) or Growth Opportunity Areas (GOA). "Non-robust agreement" indicates agreement among 7-11 models out of 13 (not a robust signal, represented by light colors), and ‘robust agreement' means agreement among 12-13 models (a robust signal, represented by dark colors). Loss of CSA means future classification is GOA or Other Rangeland Area (ORA). Loss of GOA means future classification is ORA. Change in SEI class, is relative to the SEI class during the 2017-2020 time-period. Please see Holdrege et al. 2024 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2024.08.003) for details on our methods (note that this layer is shown in Fig 2a of that manuscript). This layer is derived from the 'c9_Default_RCP45_2071-2100.tif' that can be downloaded from Science Base (https://doi.org/10.5066/P13RXYZJ).
Creator
U.S. Geological Survey, ECOSYSTEMS
Temporal Coverage
2071
Date Issued
2025-03-05
Rights
United States Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. While the Service makes every reasonable effort to ensure the accuracy and completeness of data provided for distribution, it may not have the necessary accuracy or completeness required for every possible intended use. The Service recommends that data users consult the associated metadata record to understand the quality and possible limitations of the data. The Service creates metadata records in accordance with the standards endorsed by the Federal Geographic Data Committee. As a result of the above considerations, the Service gives no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the data. It is the responsibility of the data user to use the data in a manner consistent with the limitations of geospatial data in general and these data in particular. Although these data have been processed successfully on a computer system at the Service, no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding the utility of the data on another system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. This applies to the use of the data both alone and in aggregate with other data and information.
Access Rights
Public
Format
ArcGIS ImageMapLayer
Language
English
Date Added
August 10, 2025
Provenance Statement
The metadata for this resource was last retrieved from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Open Data on 2025-08-24.

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  • Citation
    U.S. Geological Survey, ECOSYSTEMS (2025). Level of agreement among GCMs for projected change in SEI class (under RCP4.5 2071-2100) [U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. . https://gis-fws.opendata.arcgis.com/content/fws::level-of-agreement-among-gcms-for-projected-change-in-sei-class-under-rcp4-5-2071-2100 (web service)
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