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DVRPC Population & Employment Forecasts, & Zonal Data (County) version 2 [Pennsylvania] {2050}

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Title
DVRPC Population & Employment Forecasts, & Zonal Data (County) version 2 [Pennsylvania] {2050}
Description
As a part of DVRPC's long-range planning activities, the Commission is required to maintain forecasts with at least a 20-year horizon. DVRPC has updated forecasts through the horizon year of the 2050 Long-Range Plan. The 2050 Version 2.0 Population and Employment Forecasts (2050 Version 2.0, v2.0) were adopted by the DVRPC Board on October 24, 2024, They update the 2050 v1.0 forecasts with a new county-level age-cohort model and new base data from the 2020 Decennial Census, 2020 Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and 2021 National Establishments Time Series (NETS). The age-cohort model calculates future population for five year age-sex cohorts using the 2020 Census base population, and anticipated birth, death, and migration rates. These anticipated rates were developed using historic birth and death records from New Jersey and Pennsylvania state health department data, as well as historic net migration data, calculated from decennial census data. Employment forecasts were developed by multiplying population forecasts by a ratio of working age population to jobs, calculated from 2022 ACS and BEA data.The municipal and TAZ forecasts use the growth factors from the v1.0 forecasts, scaled to the new county and regional population totals from the age-cohort model. While the forecast is not adopted at the transportation analysis zone (TAZ) level, it is allocated to these zones for use in DVRPC's travel demand model, and conforms to municipal/district level adopted totals. This data provides TAZ-level population and employment. Other travel model attributes are available upon request. DVRPC has prepared regional- and county-level population and employment forecasts in five-year increments for years 2020-2050. 2019 land use model results are also available. A forthcoming Analytical Data Report will document the forecasting process and methodologies.
Creator
DVRPC-GIS
Temporal Coverage
2050
Date Issued
2025-02-15
Rights
https://catalog.dvrpc.org/dvrpc_data_license.html
Access Rights
Public
Format
Shapefile
Language
English
Date Added
February 18, 2025

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  • Citation
    DVRPC-GIS (2025). DVRPC Population & Employment Forecasts, & Zonal Data (County) version 2 [Pennsylvania] {2050}. . https://dvrpc-dvrpcgis.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dvrpcgis::dvrpc-2050-population-employment-forecasts-zonal-data-county-version-2 (dataset)
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